Such kind of distributions have been studied in economic time series related to business cycles. It is a combination of kurtosis risk and skewness risk: overall returns are dominated by extreme events (kurtosis), which are to the downside (skew). In these situations the expected value is very much less than zero, but this fact is camouflaged by the appearance of low risk and steady returns. The term is meant to refer to an investment returns profile in which there is a high probability of a small gain, and a small probability of a very large loss, which more than outweighs the gains. The concept is named after Nassim Nicholas Taleb, based on ideas outlined in his book Fooled by Randomness.Īccording to Taleb in Silent Risk, the term should be called "payoff" to reflect the importance of the payoff function of the underlying probability distribution, rather than the distribution itself. The term was coined by journalist Martin Wolf and economist John Kay to describe investments with a "high probability of a modest gain and a low probability of huge losses in any period." In economics and finance, a Taleb distribution is the statistical profile of an investment which normally provides a payoff of small positive returns, while carrying a small but significant risk of catastrophic losses.
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